Global Warming

[caldrail]

Time Team on channel 4. They presented a program about Doggerland and its inundation a few months back - a topical subject given the current vogue for global warming - but fear not, they got that information from expert climatologists working in that field. Time Team are a light hearted bunch but they go to great lengths to ensure their information is correct and they have some very experiencd archaeologists. The program showed sonar readings of the North Sea floor which indicated a massive river valley linking the Seine, Rhine, and Thames into a single estruary. There's a lot of study taking place of the north sea because there's so much archaeology down there left undisturbed by the encroaching waters. The rate of inundation is frightening, something like losing 700 yards in a week. Thats purely down to melt water. Near where I live is the marlborough downs, and if you look around, you can see places where the ground was carved by the melting ice sheet. Looking at the terrain, its easy to see a temporary lake covering north eastern wiltshire and some very strong rivers feeding it. This area is on the boundary of the ice sheet I should point out, and possibly not quite as high as the mile and a half thick interior around the midlands. There is plenty of evidence for glaciers on the Downs. Sarsen stones litter the area (just exposed rocks basically) and these were deposited by glaciers during the last ice age.

[Nephele]

Time Team on channel 4. They presented a program about Doggerland and its inundation a few months back - a topical subject given the current vogue for global warming - but fear not, they got that information from expert climatologists working in that field.

 

I imagine teevee

[Silentium]

I really don't think that human arrogance is going to count for much.

The converse of this is that human arrogance could cost us, literally, the Earth - or at least our place on it. The arrogance is thus: We accept the minority of scientific studies which deny human involvement, and overlook the fact that these climate changes are not taking place over geological time, but everyday time. And with it, we reject our suspicion that the mainstream research is probably true, but - well, who cares - let our kids and grandchildren deal with the results of our grossly luxurious lives and the mess they are causing.

 

Usually, logically - minded people accept the scientific theory which most fits the evidence. But, just as otherwise intelligent religious believers let their objectivity slip when it comes to authenticity of their Scriptures, or smokers disregard medical evidence because to curb their habits would be too difficult, people who enjoy their luxurious lifestyles search for alternative interpretation of evidence, or marginal yet technically valid scientific studies to justify their lifestyles. And I include most of us here, given that even relatively poor people in industrialised countries are filthy rich in comparison with the remaining two thirds of the planet.

 

The overwhelming weight of evidence is that human activity is warming up our planet. And there are no 'hidden agendas' for the bulk of climatologists subscribing to this theory. What possible agenda could there be for concocting a theory to stop people holidaying abroad? Or from driving over-large 4x4's with comically macho names? I don't particularly like tabloid newspapers, but if I were a scientist, I wouldn't propose a theory to try and stop people reading them. The whole conspiracy theory idea vis-a-vis global warming is just plain fatuous - what possible benefit could the (majority of) climate scientists gain from it, aside from dissuading middle class mums from driving their kids round the block in quasi - armoured vehicles, or reducing the number of flights to Benidorm, Ayia Nappa or Florida? And what purpose would that serve ( If not culturally valid on grounds of taste) if there were no scientfic evidence to suggest it was harmful?

 

I initially started this thread as a spoof ( Read my initial post, and apply the math!) but I had to break my silence with respect to some of the ideas put forward here. The conspiracy theory here holds no water at all, given that there absolutely is nothing to gain from it. All of us, however, would be greatly inconvenienced if we had to alter our lifestyles to curb the findings of the majority of climatologists. And therein lies the real problem - most of us are far too comfortable to be bothered.

 

My view is, if even 1% of the studies show that human activity is to blame, then it is imperative that we curb our habits. To not do so, even with just a 1% probability of success, is negligence to the ultimate degree.

 

My view exactly. I did not intervene before because I sort of gathered the irony in the previous posts..I don't think there is much more to add to this post.

Maybe this link.

Not to mention that the monuments of Roma (and Athens, which is even more polluted than Roma I think..) would really benefit from a decrease in atmospheric pollution, and so the people who suffer from respiratory diseases directly caused by it.

Edited June 20, 2007 by Silentium

[Nephele]

Time Team on channel 4. They presented a program about Doggerland and its inundation a few months back - a topical subject given the current vogue for global warming - but fear not, they got that information from expert climatologists working in that field.

 

I imagine teevee

[Kosmo]

CO2 it's a valued commodity and good profits can be make out of it.

"Carbon trading: Where greed is green

 

LONDON: Seeking to match a desire to make money with his environmental instincts, Louis Redshaw, a former electricity trader, met with five top investment banks to propose trading carbon dioxide. Only one, Barclays Capital, was interested in his proposition.

 

Three years later, the situation has turned around entirely, and carbon experts like Redshaw, 34, are among the rising stars in the City of London financial district. Managing emissions is one of the fastest-growing segments in financial services, and companies are scrambling for talent. Their goal: a slice of a market now worth about $30 billion, but which could grow to $1 trillion within a decade..."

 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/20/business/money.php

 

Imagine that cutting emission by half by 2050 as G8 proposed will be realized despite the increased need for CO2 emission brought by development. From now until then a growing part of out taxes, but also of the price of products we use will go in this direction. Today already a part of the price of each european industrial product we buy goes to CO2 costs (penalties, credits, trading etc)

Transport will be added soon and then, maybe, cows, humans etc

 

Indeed the climate skeptiks are wrong. This CO2 scare it's very good, at least for some. 1 trillion (1 000 000 000 000) dollars in ten years from today's meger 30 billion! Not a bad business for something based on faulty science and massive propaganda!

[Viggen]

Nevertheless, we had the hottest april, the hottest may and the hottest june since recorded history (currently 36 degrees in my hometown), we had the hotest decade here since recorded history, if it is man, machine or natures fault, i dont know, i do however know it is damm hot now in austria (and on a site note, in my province because of the warming, wine is now growing)

 

cheers

viggen

[caldrail]

Did the Time Team provide a list of their sources at the end of their television program? They should have, and I would really like to know which

[Viggen]

Recorded History? Theats a vague phrase that can mean anything. Records of temperatures have only been kept in recent times and the mean temperature today is well below the average for earth, and still below the warmer periods of 'recorded history'.

To clearify recorded history in austrian context,

Scientific records of austrian weather is done by the austrian weather bureau since 1873 and records of austrian temperature is known (without todays standard though), back to the late 17th century.

 

cheers

viggen

[Kosmo]

Nevertheless, we had the hottest april, the hottest may and the hottest june since recorded history (currently 36 degrees in my hometown), we had the hotest decade here since recorded history, if it is man, machine or natures fault, i dont know, i do however know it is damm hot now in austria (and on a site note, in my province because of the warming, wine is now growing)

 

cheers

viggen

 

For sure it's hot! The temperatures in the last 8 months were unusually high. Draught ruined this year crops in many parts of Romania especially the East. If it keeps this way it's very likely that we will have water restrictions at least for irrigation.

[Andrew Dalby]

Nevertheless, we had the hottest april, the hottest may and the hottest june since recorded history (currently 36 degrees in my hometown), we had the hotest decade here since recorded history, if it is man, machine or natures fault, i dont know, i do however know it is damm hot now in austria (and on a site note, in my province because of the warming, wine is now growing)

 

cheers

viggen

 

For sure it's hot! The temperatures in the last 8 months were unusually high. Draught ruined this year crops in many parts of Romania especially the East. If it keeps this way it's very likely that we will have water restrictions at least for irrigation.

 

Our weather in western France has been strange too, but in the opposite direction. A very hot and dry April followed by extremely wet and rather cold May and June. I would happily send you the rain clouds, Kosmo, if I could.

 

We are told to expect more extreme conditions (not necessarily always hotter and drier) as the globe warms. And such conditions bring their own problems. For example, some food crops will sometimes do better, others will fail.

[Gaius Paulinus Maximus]

The weather in the UK's been pretty strange too for the last couple of weeks, April was gloriously hot with record breaking temperatures then come June when you expect the weather to keep getting better, the heavens opened and it's done nothing but rain for the past two weeks, I'm not talking just your average rain but big heavy downpours, torrential rain, floods everywhere.

 

It's been raining this morning but as I look out of my window now, the sun is shining and it looks like it's going to be a nice day..... But for how long I wonder?

[Silentium]

Nevertheless, we had the hottest april, the hottest may and the hottest june since recorded history (currently 36 degrees in my hometown), we had the hotest decade here since recorded history, if it is man, machine or natures fault, i dont know, i do however know it is damm hot now in austria (and on a site note, in my province because of the warming, wine is now growing)

 

cheers

viggen

Oh well, 38

[Viggen]

Interesting new study from the University of Purdue about the Mediterranean region and the climate change...

 

A study led by a Purdue University researcher projects a 200 percent to 500 percent increase in the number of dangerously hot days in the Mediterranean by the end of the 21st century if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues. The study found France would be subjected to the largest projected increase of high-temperature extremes.

http://news.uns.purdue.edu/hp/DiffenbaughHeat.html

 

cheers

viggen

[Silentium]

There was the Warm Medieval Period, with temperatures higher than today.

We can dispute that indeed

[Andrew Dalby]

Interesting new study from the University of Purdue about the Mediterranean region and the climate change...

 

A study led by a Purdue University researcher projects a 200 percent to 500 percent increase in the number of dangerously hot days in the Mediterranean by the end of the 21st century if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues. The study found France would be subjected to the largest projected increase of high-temperature extremes.

http://news.uns.purdue.edu/hp/DiffenbaughHeat.html

 

cheers

viggen

 

At a conference 12 years ago a French climatologist told me: "If my students ask me about global warming, I tell them it's only a hypothesis. But I also tell them, if their families are looking for a holiday home, not to buy in the deep south."