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Gasoline Price Bet


Favonius Cornelius

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MPC, since one of the tyrants seems to be entertained by this twaddle, pick out and quote that which I am 'all wet' about and then let's proceed.

 

As I wouldn't bet with a certain wool monger :notworthy: about herbs, or a certain Greek swiller :notworthy: about beer, or you about Rome, it might not be a good idea to make bets with a former (real) investment banker about price behavior.

 

;)

Edited by Gaius Octavius
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OK, I can respect that (though I was looking forward to a new Roman history book). Now let's agree on a source for national gasoline prices on 11/22. Can we agree to those publised by the Energy Information Administration? As of 9/18, US gasoline was selling at $2.49. If on 11/22 prices are higher, you win; if not, I win.

 

$2.49 a gallon? Not in NYC, NY or NJ. Just a teensy bit higher, like over 3 greenbacks for 87 octane. Was that price for Hi, Med, Lo test or gas & water? Or was that a commodity (exchange) price? Who is this EIA? Maybe they buy gas in Venezuela.

 

Forgive me for twaddling on. Was that a mean, median or modal price? Mayhaps a statistical sample from - Saudi Arabia?

 

;)

Edited by Gaius Octavius
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$2.49 a gallon? Not in NYC, NY or NJ. Just a teensy bit higher, like over 3 greenbacks for 87 octane. Was that price for Hi, Med, Lo test or gas & water? Or was that a commodity (exchange) price? Who is this EIA? Maybe they buy gas in Venezuela.

 

In Detroit I just payed about $2.16 not 15 minutes ago. Though, nobody here has a job anymore so its sort of irrelevant.

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$2.49 a gallon? Not in NYC, NY or NJ. Just a teensy bit higher, like over 3 greenbacks for 87 octane. Was that price for Hi, Med, Lo test or gas & water? Or was that a commodity (exchange) price? Who is this EIA? Maybe they buy gas in Venezuela.

 

In Detroit I just payed about $2.16 not 15 minutes ago. Though, nobody here has a job anymore so its sort of irrelevant.

 

That's nice. Detroit seems to be about 70 to 90 cents below NYC. Which grade? From Charlie's or Shell?

So, mayhaps the market won't bear a higher price or D. is awash in petrol or it's production costs are much less.!? In any event, it is not the price of the commodity that we speak of, rather the causes for price movements and pricing itself.

 

N.B. I made mention of your sensibilities (in your prior post), a little earlier.

Edited by Gaius Octavius
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$2.49 a gallon? Not in NYC, NY or NJ. Just a teensy bit higher, like over 3 greenbacks for 87 octane. Was that price for Hi, Med, Lo test or gas & water? Or was that a commodity (exchange) price? Who is this EIA? Maybe they buy gas in Venezuela.

 

In Detroit I just payed about $2.16 not 15 minutes ago. Though, nobody here has a job anymore so its sort of irrelevant.

 

That's nice. Detroit seems to be about 70 to 90 cents below NYC. Which grade? From Charlie's or Shell?

 

N.B. I made mention of your sensibilities (in your prior post), a little earlier.

 

Shell, 87 octane. Clark... across the street... was $2.15 I believe. For some reason we are traditionally fairly low in Michigan compared to the national mean here. I presume its an oil company/auto maker conspiracy to keep those of us in the former motor city (without any form of a mass transit system) driving our SUV's "up north" without a care in the world for gas prices so we can shoot deer and other pesky moving foods.

 

Hey, gas is so low, I just put in my credit card, point the nozzle up in the air and let it rip whilst singing cheery Irish drinking songs. The kids love it! (and the fire department too)

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Who is this EIA?

 

The EIA is a federal agency that (inter alia) tracks average gasoline prices. If you follow the link, you can find the methdology used to sample prices across the nation, and the figure I cited was the average of all grades of gasoline.

 

And yes I knew that everyone was forecasting lower gasoline prices due to seasonal and supply factors, which why I knew that the political explanation for lower gasoline prices was all wet. It may be a surpise in Octoboer, but it's not an "October surprise".

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Who is this EIA?

 

The EIA is a federal agency that (inter alia) tracks average gasoline prices. If you follow the link, you can find the methdology used to sample prices across the nation, and the figure I cited was the average of all grades of gasoline.

 

And yes I knew that everyone was forecasting lower gasoline prices due to seasonal and supply factors, which why I knew that the political explanation for lower gasoline prices was all wet. It may be a surpise in Octoboer, but it's not an "October surprise".

 

The EIA bit was rhetorical. What I was trying to really say was 'Who believes the government?"

 

I hope that both you and F.C. look at the above site before it misappears.

:unsure:

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This is all interesting, fellows. And this is the one forum on the site that can be legitimately called a debate club.

 

But let's all remember the focus of this site, at the end of the day, is Rome. I wish people would invest as much energy into producing articles and reviews on Romanophile topics as they do hashing out these contemporary socio-economic concerns. I think G.O. had the right idea when he suggested to all back away while you still could.

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Breaking news from EIA:

 

9/11 - US Avg (All Gasoline Grades): $ 2.618

9/18 - US Avg (All Gasoline Grades): $ 2.497

9/25 - US Avg (All Gasoline Grades): $ 2.378

 

Data still consistent with two opposing hypotheses: (1) oil company/GOP price manipulation in anticipation of early November elections, (2) the seasonal fall in prices that occurs every year. The real test will come between early November and December. The first hypothesis sees a gradual return to pre-election prices (when oil companies would feel free to 'gouge' consumers); the second hypothesis sees continuing declines until demand picks up again in the spring.

 

Only time will tell...

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