M. Porcius Cato Posted November 7, 2006 Report Share Posted November 7, 2006 ***Election Day Update*** Updated data from EIA: 9/11 - US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.670 9/18 - US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.549 9/25 - US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.429 10/2 - US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.360 10/9 - US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.310 10/16-US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.274 10/23-US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.255 10/30-US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.264 11/6 - US Avg (All Grades): $ 2.246 Data still consistent with two opposing hypotheses: (1) oil company/GOP price manipulation in anticipation of early November elections, (2) the seasonal fall in prices that occurs every year. The real test will come between early November and December. The first hypothesis sees a gradual return to pre-election prices (when oil companies would feel free to 'gouge' consumers); the second hypothesis sees continuing declines until demand picks up again in the spring. Only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pantagathus Posted November 7, 2006 Report Share Posted November 7, 2006 There was talk again this morning on NPR that OPEC is gonna cut production to bleed off surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Favonius Cornelius Posted November 8, 2006 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2006 (edited) I'm not sure what the national averages are, but I like to keep track of my corner Shell station as a general indication. For unleaded in the past month or more it has been +- 1 cent from $3.30 Yesterday went to $3.33, today $3.39 ..... Edited November 8, 2006 by Favonius Cornelius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonlapse Posted November 9, 2006 Report Share Posted November 9, 2006 Prices here jumped slightly last week, but are currently still dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaius Octavius Posted November 9, 2006 Report Share Posted November 9, 2006 FC claimed that gasoline prices were falling for some reason connected with the upcoming elections. GO claimed that "elections affect markets" (which is vague enough to mean anything). Now, if you two--GO and FC--want to claim (and maybe this wasn't your intent) that recent prices are falling due to the upcoming elections, then in logic they should rise again after the elections are over. Once again your logic fails you. One event may move a price (prices) one way and another event move them more so that way or the reverse. As you suggested that I read the Philippics, read an elementary economics book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaius Octavius Posted November 9, 2006 Report Share Posted November 9, 2006 Leaving aside your appalling support for yet another rotten dictator, Citgo stations in the US set prices independently of their parent company. Thus, Hugo Chavez has no more control over the price of gasoline prices in US Citgo stations than he does over the prices of stations operated under competing franchises. If it were otherwise, I'd be very happy to join the Citgo boycott, which is the more likely cause of your local station's low prices. Like any good capitalist, I buy my petrol at the cheapest rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pantagathus Posted November 9, 2006 Report Share Posted November 9, 2006 My Chevron station who has been selling premium (which I have to put in my Subaru) for $2.18 for the last month and a half just went up to $2.28 the day after the election... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaius Octavius Posted November 9, 2006 Report Share Posted November 9, 2006 (edited) Tu parles francais comme vache espagnole. Tu parles fran Edited November 9, 2006 by Gaius Octavius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaius Octavius Posted November 9, 2006 Report Share Posted November 9, 2006 Now that the elections are history, there seems to have been a 'bump' in petrol prices. For my argument, what could the cause(s) be? 1. prez chinney, the republiks and the Seven Deadly Sisters, in conclave, are punishing the polloi for throwing out the bums? 2. A 'corner' on the market on Wall Street? 3. Inflation? 4. Simple greed, i.e., retailers and wholesalers figuring that they can squeeze a few more farthings out of the peasants? 5. Adumbration? 6. A shift in production to heating oil? 7. Sun spots? 8. Etc.? 9. All or none or any of the above? 10. Gaylord van Shaftingham? Let's give Rome its pagan share. Didn't the government have to build up the port of Ostia to get reasonably priced corn to the under class because the magnates had a corner on local grain? Didn't Diocletian have to introduce price controls to keep the populares in reasonable misery, and the magnates a little poorer? Oh! dear, no such word as 'populares'. Will fustigate myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonlapse Posted November 10, 2006 Report Share Posted November 10, 2006 Here's some info http://www.unrv.com/moons/gaschart.png http://www.unrv.com/moons/gaschart3yr.png I have read that it's partly a reaction to the political power change in the House and thus changes in energy policy, but I personally wouldn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaius Octavius Posted November 10, 2006 Report Share Posted November 10, 2006 (edited) Except for ticking off one of the tyrants, what has been conclusively proven? 1. Capt. Black Adder, Ret'd, is a genius? 2. MPC is a genius? 3. FC is a genius? 4. His Greekness :notworthy: was burgled at the pump? 5. PP ought to truck the stuff to America? 6. Moon lives in Colorado? I am unanimous in option number 1. Edited November 10, 2006 by Gaius Octavius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primus Pilus Posted November 10, 2006 Report Share Posted November 10, 2006 5. PP ought to truck the stuff to America? Seemingly yes. We are still averaging around $2.20 per gallon. In a BLUE state no less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M. Porcius Cato Posted November 10, 2006 Report Share Posted November 10, 2006 There is no evidence of a 'bump' in energy prices. We don't have comparable data yet, and we agreed beforehand to wait until late November or December to determine whether prices had risen back toward their September levels. Also, I consider any factor that "explains" but does not predict to be intellectually vacuous. AFTER THE FACT, you can "explain" anything. That was the whole point of this bet--we could test a hypothetical explanation by examining its PREDICTIONS. If you can't make accurate predictions, your theory is worthless. If you spout off on energy prices but you're unwilling even to try to make predictions, then you're a bullsh*tter. As for me, I'd rather be wrong than be a windbag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaius Octavius Posted November 10, 2006 Report Share Posted November 10, 2006 (edited) There is no evidence of a 'bump' in energy prices. We don't have comparable data yet, and we agreed beforehand to wait until late November or December to determine whether prices had risen back toward their September levels. Also, I consider any factor that "explains" but does not predict to be intellectually vacuous. AFTER THE FACT, you can "explain" anything. That was the whole point of this bet--we could test a hypothetical explanation by examining its PREDICTIONS. If you can't make accurate predictions, your theory is worthless. If you spout off on energy prices but you're unwilling even to try to make predictions, then you're a bullsh*tter. As for me, I'd rather be wrong than be a windbag. MPC, I always look forward to your charm and grace. Let me tell you that I am a past master at B/S. Don't need a book. There is an old rule: Never B/S a B/Ser. Let us get on with 'prices'. Now, amongst my collection of bonds, I have a slug of Lucent 6.45/29 and GM 7.70/16. The former cost about 75; the latter 100 1/2. Would anyone - anybody at all, please tell me what their prices will be at any time in the future.?! I need not be told why - just the prices and when, and back them up to the hilt. Your bit about predictions applies to: the physical sciences (most of the time); voo-doo economics, (none of the time); weather (some of the time); economics?, who knows?. I was going to inform you about the recent movements of the prices of gold, but I am zonked now. However, I offer one universal challenge: The sun will or won't rise tomorrow or any other day. Pick your poison; lay your odds and send me your check. P.S. Sometimes I think that you are fatuous. Edited November 10, 2006 by Gaius Octavius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M. Porcius Cato Posted November 10, 2006 Report Share Posted November 10, 2006 Now, amongst my collection of bonds, I have a slug of Lucent 6.45/29 and GM 7.70/16. The former cost about 75; the latter 100 1/2. Would anyone - anybody at all, please tell me what their prices will be at any time in the future.?! I need not be told why - just the prices and when, and back them up to the hilt. Why is this question relevant? There's been seasonal fluctuation in US gasoline prices for over a decade. Has Lucent stock seen the same predictable fluctuations? Has anyone attempted to explain these season fluctuations by means of some other factor, such as a massive conspiracy? If not--the Lucent/GM cases are irrelevant. Nor is the claim that every price in the market can be predicted with 100% regularity. If anyone could do it, they'd be rich. But if you want to claim that prices are being kept artificially low by a temporary factor (such as a conspiracy to influence elections), then the claim has logical implications for price fluctuations. As far as I can tell, you're simply arguing that some prices are unpredictable. Well, duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts