Sectarian Violence/civil War In Iraq?

[FLavius Valerius Constantinus]

I know this is way offtopic even in the off topic forum, but this was too important...

 

After the Muhummad pics...mass rallies... Nigeria's sectarian war was made even fierce. Ninety-three people dead already in two/three days.

 

BUT...in Iraq...now the bastards have gone and done..."Blow up the Golden Mosques' Dome." A few hours later, mass rally and the signs of civil war are brewing. Also in a few hours, militias/death squads everywhere started to burn mosques, kill clerics, kill foreign prisoners/terrorists... absolutely out of control...

 

So the question is, do you think this will die down or is it the last straw?

Edited February 23, 2006 by FLavius Valerius Constantinus

[Sextus Roscius]

Its certainly not going to die down, this is most liekly just the beginning. I fear for the worst. Chances are this could escalate into civil war. Quite frankly, the U.S. forces there can't and couldn't keep a civil war under control. Personaly I've found a way out, a person to blame for all the violence.

 

WINSTON CHURCHHILL!

[M. Porcius Cato]

Personaly I've found a way out, a person to blame for all the violence....WINSTON CHURCHHILL!

 

[tflex]

If the Americans leave now, I guarantee their will be a civil war. They need to stick around a little longer maybe for another year until the Iraqis organize a competent army that can deal with the local violence and tensions.

[docoflove1974]

If the Americans leave now, I guarantee their will be a civil war. They need to stick around a little longer maybe for another year until the Iraqis organize a competent army that can deal with the local violence and tensions.

 

Yeah, and that guarantees nothing.

 

I like the Churchill answer better

 

Seriously, though...I have friends in the military serving (as I'm sure many of you do, too), and I have suddenly got very very very very VERY nervous about their safety. This is up from the very very very nervous state that I was in even 2-3 weeks ago. I don't know if this is the doing of terrorists who want to stir up the manure pile, or the Sunnis who feel like they want to start a fight...either way, this *bleep* has to stop.

[Moonlapse]

I think that interrupting American/Iraqi progress was the intention.

[Favonius Cornelius]

I think that interrupting American/Iraqi progress was the intention.

 

Exactly, most likely with Iranian assistance and who knows who else.

 

All I can say is I sure am glad Bush asked them to 'bring it on.'

[Virgil61]

Sunni v Shia attacks have been going on a smaller scale since the aftermath of the '03 invasion. I remember one instance were we arrived on the scene with a couple of Marine LAVs just in time to head off a mini-battle between a Sunni clan that had power under Saddam and a hundred or so p*ssed off Shia ready to even the score. There were countless numbers of smaller reprisals going on as well.

 

I'm not surprised at the Mosque's destruction, it was in a region made up of both populations and whether Iraq Sunnis or Al Queda are responsible something like this was bound to happen. The Sunnis, under 25% of the population, are ticked off, they controlled the power for years and received the benefits. To be blunt the Shia and Kurds with some exceptions got sh*t on for most of that time. When my unit patroled the Shia area of the south for several months we suffered no casualties at all. When we moved north fto the Sunni triangle it was a different story.

 

Intellectually I hope that somehow we can get the Sunnis to come to terms and everyone can bask in the warm glow of a secular liberal democracy. But my gut wishes the Sunnis reap what they've sown, the Shia and Kurds give them the beating they so richly deserve.

[tflex]

Sunni v Shia attacks have been going on a smaller scale since the aftermath of the '03 invasion. I remember one instance were we arrived on the scene with a couple of Marine LAVs just in time to head off a mini-battle between a Sunni clan that had power under Saddam and a hundred or so p*ssed off Shia ready to even the score. There were countless numbers of smaller reprisals going on as well.

 

I'm not surprised at the Mosque's destruction, it was in a region made up of both populations and whether Iraq Sunnis or Al Queda are responsible something like this was bound to happen. The Sunnis, under 25% of the population, are ticked off, they controlled the power for years and received the benefits. To be blunt the Shia and Kurds with some exceptions got sh*t on for most of that time. When my unit patroled the Shia area of the south for several months we suffered no casualties at all. When we moved north fto the Sunni triangle it was a different story.

 

Intellectually I hope that somehow we can get the Sunnis to come to terms and everyone can bask in the warm glow of a secular liberal democracy. But my gut wishes the Sunnis reap what they've sown, the Shia and Kurds give them the beating they so richly deserve.

 

It's natural for the Shia to wanna get even with a Sunni minority that oppressed them for decades. But I truly think if they didn't have the Sunnis to take it out on, they would turn on the Americans. I think they've been instructed by their clerics not to attack Americans, because under this new political system they now have a clear majority and hold most of the power. They are still benefiting from the American invasion so why make trouble now. The problem is once they get what they want and the Sunnis are no longer a major threat to them, I'm pretty sure they will turn on the Americans. The Shias can be more fanatical and backstabbing than their Sunni neighbours.

 

I"de like to know what your thoughts are on this matter and if you think its worth staying there in the long run?

[Virgil61]

...

It's natural for the Shia to wanna get even with a Sunni minority that oppressed them for decades. But I truly think if they didn't have the Sunnis to take it out on, they would turn on the Americans. I think they've been instructed by their clerics not to attack Americans, because under this new political system they now have a clear majority and hold most of the power. They are still benefiting from the American invasion so why make trouble now. The problem is once they get what they want and the Sunnis are no longer a major threat to them, I'm pretty sure they will turn on the Americans. The Shias can be more fanatical and backstabbing than their Sunni neighbours.

 

I"de like to know what your thoughts are on this matter and if you think its worth staying there in the long run?

 

I don't think the majority of Shia would turn on the Americans, especially in the south-central areas from Najaf to Al Kut south to Nasiriyah, but a smaller clique run by a Shia imam named Sadr and based out of east Baghdad has always been as much at odds with the US as with the Sunnis. It was his thugs who infiltrated Najaf a couple of years ago when the Marines pulled out and took over the mosques against the wishes of the local Shias. We've sewn a lot of goodwill in many of the Shia areas with a lot of effort being made to build up electricity, water distribution and schools that were left to rot under the Baathists. Not that they love us, but they tolerate us. Certainly the most influential Shia imams outside of Sadr, like Sistani, and their instructions not to interfere with Americans has helped.

 

Your right in the sense it's a two edged sword. The Sunnis are much more secular generally than the Shia, even the Iraqi Christians think so--the Sunni areas are where the majority of them choose to live. Is it worth staying in the long run? Well, we helped let the mess get out of control by some poor decisions made early in the invasion/occupation by Rumsfeld and Bremer. We owe it to help clean it up.

[M. Porcius Cato]

Does anyone think the number of American forces in Iraq--or any number--could really avert a civil war?

[Sextus Roscius]

With the current number of troops, no, with more, yes. The problem is, we have aproximately (as last I checked) 150,000 troops in Iraq about, which is barely enough to keep a very shaky peace in such a violent country of about 29,000,000 people divided into conflicting ethinic groups. Our gov't needs to put in at least 300,000 troops to soldify things. Its a bad war though, the politicians are conflicting with military intrest. I think if we gave the military an objective with a few rough guide lines (follow the law, etc) and allowed them to use what ever means nessacary as long as they remain in those boundaries then we could take and hold the country much more efficiently....though that is "unethical"

[Kosmo]

It looks like the topling of Saddam unleashed the kurds and Shia against century old sunni rule. The Shia are the main power and they have excelent links to Iran. It might turn out that the effect of american intervention in Irak is the establishment of a new Islamic state if what I've read about the forcing of Sharia in the British zone is true.

[Chyhoedd da]

I think by supporting the oppressed, the gap between them was grown much farther then anyone ever thought. I think this may turn into a French or Russian revolution. The peasants/serbs are the Shias and kurd while the king/czar(tzar) are the Sunnis.

 

Well, this seems to be a twisted dog fight, take out the big dog (Saddam) and give the other dogs some food and rest (Consitution and Democracy) and watch the fight begin. Im betting no survivors in this match, for the last standing will most likely die of blood loss and many scars.

 

I guess the if the JEws feel the same way as Muslims feel about them they are very eager to see this battle unfold, and maybe by chance swoop down lkike vultures and take prizes of war.

[Virgil61]

I think by supporting the oppressed, the gap between them was grown much farther then anyone ever thought. I think this may turn into a French or Russian revolution. The peasants/serbs are the Shias and kurd while the king/czar(tzar) are the Sunnis.

 

I think it's really in no way analagous to the political and secular revolutions in France and R

Russia. This is a much more culturally bound affair.

 

...

I guess the if the JEws feel the same way as Muslims feel about them they are very eager to see this battle unfold, and maybe by chance swoop down lkike vultures and take prizes of war.

 

Israel--if that's what you mean by 'Jews'--hasn't had the resources or desire to get into this fight. The closest I saw to a jewish presence were the remnants of a couple of jewish families made up of about 6 elderly people in Baghdad and a Rabbi Chaplain in the US Army. I'm not sure what prizes are there for them to take.