Your Predictions For Future...

[DanM]

I still have faith in sanity however. Despite the best efforts of religious fanatics across the world to fulfill their doomsday expectations of life, you still have to go through a scientist to make it happen.

 

How exactly are they the guardians of truth and justice? lol A famous scientist in Pakistan sold nuclear secrets to a host of unfriendly countries. North Korean scientists developed weapons for the most evil (in my opinion) regime on earth. And Soviet scientists developed nuclear bombs that were probably pointed directly at you for part of your earlier life. The character or higher ideals of scientists will not protect us from anything when so many scientists can be bought and sold so easily.

Edited November 29, 2005 by DanM

[Favonius Cornelius]

I still have faith in sanity however. Despite the best efforts of religious fanatics across the world to fulfill their doomsday expectations of life, you still have to go through a scientist to make it happen.

 

How exactly are they the guardians of truth and justice? lol A famous scientist in Pakistan sold nuclear secrets to a host of unfriendly countries. North Korean scientists developed weapons for the most evil (in my opinion) regime on earth. And Soviet scientists developed nuclear bombs that were probably pointed directly at you for part of your earlier life. The character or higher ideals of scientists will not protect us from anything when so many scientists can be bought and sold so easily.

 

None of these powers which you speak of scare me necessairly. The power behind all nuclear technology is diplomatic power, not actual military power. What if North Korea has nukes? To use them would be suicide, but to have them is protection.

 

What scares me is your plusable senario of the smaller terrorist groups getting their hands on them, but in the end I think those with the capability still yet maintain a semblance of sanity. The whole world knows the repercussions of using such a weapon. The North Koreans are not stupid nor insane, they are calculated and largely pawns of China.

[DanM]

None of these powers which you speak of scare me necessairly. The power behind all nuclear technology is diplomatic power, not actual military power. What if North Korea has nukes? To use them would be suicide, but to have them is protection.

 

What scares me is your plusable senario of the smaller terrorist groups getting their hands on them, but in the end I think those with the capability still yet maintain a semblance of sanity. The whole world knows the repercussions of using such a weapon. The North Koreans are not stupid nor insane, they are calculated and largely pawns of China.

 

Would it scare you if N Korea or some element tied to the former Soviet Union sold a nuke to the highest bidder? What if the highest bigger wasn't a state, but was a terrorist organization? What if that organization smuggled the bomb accross the US-Mexico border and set it off in San Diego? Don't they have a really big naval base?

 

Like you, I agree the danger comes from nations with some form of nuclear weapons capabilities that would be motivated to turn over a bomb to a terrorist organization either for money or for some shared ideology.

 

The thought of Pakistan going extremist is also very worrisome.

 

FYI, I think a war involving nukes is for more likely with India vs Pakistan or maybe Iran vs Isreal than anyone else. No nation will nuke the USA unless they are looking to commit suicide.

Edited November 29, 2005 by DanM

[Germanicus]

Like you, I agree the danger comes from nations with some form of nuclear weapons capabilities that would be motivated to turn over a bomb to a terrorist organization either for money or for some shared ideology.

 

I heard a while back that Russia cannot locate a number of Soviet era briefcase size nuclear devices, the number may have been as high as a hundred. All you need is an unscrupulous person to get hold of one and sell it.....kaboom.

[DanM]

I heard a while back that Russia cannot locate a number of Soviet era briefcase size nuclear devices, the number may have been as high as a hundred. All you need is an unscrupulous person to get hold of one and sell it.....kaboom.

 

Exactly.......

 

This is why I feel it is just a matter of time before we get hit with a nuke. We can be right 1,000 times. All they have to do is get it right once and some American city will be a pile of smoking, radioactive rubble. And when that happens, I believe the USA will snap and a lot of people outside of the USA will die. More than anyone wants to even consider. If the USA ever reaches a point where it can accept millions of American military casulaties, then no combination of countries will be able to stop us from exacting revenge to whatever degree we decide is needed. Thats why the USA will be so scary. If we ever snap as a nation, it will become a nightmare like no other the world has never seen.

Edited November 29, 2005 by DanM

[Viggen]

my prediction for the future is "you cant predict a damm thing"

 

I remember back in primary school we learned about soviet union, and warscaw pact, GDR, well gone...

I remember in the middle of the 80s when i visited my uncles office seeing a huge machine were a piece of paper came out it was called a fax machine, it was shocking to me back then and i couldnt understand how someone could send something written via a telephone line...

I remember back in the early 90s when i was playing with my monster computer Intel 0486 with 66 Mhz Ultima 7 II The Serpent Isle, reading a computer magazine about Origin (the maker of Ultima) planning on an Online version of it, i was like "huh?" what do they mean with online?

I remember back in 95 when i left Austria to move to South Africa, no one had a mobile phone, only 7 years later when i moved back to Austria, Everyone including my 80 year old grandma had one...

 

As i said, things move so quickly, so many things happen we havent even thought of or imaged a couple of years ago, as i said i cant predict a damm thing...

 

cheers

viggen

[DanM]

Great point. 25 years ago no one could have possibly predicted the benefit of personal computers or the internet. Then again, no one could have possibly predicted aids before it happened too.

 

The many X factors that we cannot forecast may either contain our salvation or our doom. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Edited November 29, 2005 by DanM

[Favonius Cornelius]

None of these powers which you speak of scare me necessairly. The power behind all nuclear technology is diplomatic power, not actual military power. What if North Korea has nukes? To use them would be suicide, but to have them is protection.

 

What scares me is your plusable senario of the smaller terrorist groups getting their hands on them, but in the end I think those with the capability still yet maintain a semblance of sanity. The whole world knows the repercussions of using such a weapon. The North Koreans are not stupid nor insane, they are calculated and largely pawns of China.

 

Would it scare you if N Korea or some element tied to the former Soviet Union sold a nuke to the highest bidder? What if the highest bigger wasn't a state, but was a terrorist organization? What if that organization smuggled the bomb accross the US-Mexico border and set it off in San Diego? Don't they have a really big naval base?

 

Like you, I agree the danger comes from nations with some form of nuclear weapons capabilities that would be motivated to turn over a bomb to a terrorist organization either for money or for some shared ideology.

 

The thought of Pakistan going extremist is also very worrisome.

 

FYI, I think a war involving nukes is for more likely with India vs Pakistan or maybe Iran vs Isreal than anyone else. No nation will nuke the USA unless they are looking to commit suicide.

 

I am not saying certainly that there is no risk, but I think it is a lot smaller in actuality. Also for those small sized nukes, again you need great expertise to get those to work right. It's not like some movie where there is a little red button and a timer. As time goes on also any actual device constructed during this time is more and more likely to fail. Sure, they might have a nice wad of plutonium there, but they won't know what to do with it but sell it to a major country with the capability to handle it.

 

What is stopping these nations from just selling this stuff off? Again, sanity, and the realization that a nuke gone off in the states will be very bad for everyone for the very same reasons you point out. Don't let the north Koreans fool you into believing they are insane.

 

There is a reason we know of exact locations of development of nuclear weapons, and in fact I am sure the Pentagon knows the exact capabilities of all nations, but of course would not publicize the info because it is of advantage to us for them not to know what we know.

 

Great point. 25 years ago no one could have possibly predicted the benefit of personal computers or the internet. Then again, no one could have possibly predicted aids before it happened too.

 

The many X factors that we cannot forecast may either contain our salvation or our doom. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

 

Think of the remarkable tech advances which alter life that Viggen pointed out, now think of a satallite system capable of pinpointing dense areas of radioactive materials, to the size of a briefcase nuke.

 

Who do you have to thank for all that: scientists.

 

Ars magica baby.

[Moonlapse]

What do you guys think are the best case scenarios?

 

For instance... success in areas of energy, war, politics... My point being that yes the outlook can be pessimist, but there is no true collective and everything realistically happens at the individual level. You can make a difference even if its just a little. Start with your children, if you have them.

[DanM]

Think of the remarkable tech advances which alter life that Viggen pointed out, now think of a satallite system capable of pinpointing dense areas of radioactive materials, to the size of a briefcase nuke.

 

Who do you have to thank for all that: scientists.

 

And its possible that Belgian scientists gave us aids? Those #$*&H Belgians. (just kidding)

 

And who gave us weaponized versions of smallpox?

 

What about chemical weapons?

 

What about Bob Saggett? Well OK. We can't blame that one on the scientists, but I'm still not happy about it.

 

Scientists are like lawyers and big business CEOs. There are good and bad. They can be constructive and destructive. Its like saying fire is bad because your house burned down and not recognizing the fact that it was also used to cook your food and give you warmth.

 

At the end of the day, its about people being responsible and thats why I am so pessimistic about the future. Humans have not proven that we as a race are capable of responsibly using the things our little minds can invent.

[DanM]

What do you guys think are the best case scenarios?

 

For instance... success in areas of energy, war, politics... My point being that yes the outlook can be pessimist, but there is no true collective and everything realistically happens at the individual level. You can make a difference even if its just a little. Start with your children, if you have them.

 

I live in the USA so my answers will be slanted towards that perspective.

 

1. (Politics) I think more people are losing respect for politicians of both sides. They see them increasingly as dishonest, petty, self-serving and unqualified to do the job we elected them to do. Therefore, its likely the American public will continue gaining a more realistic perspective of our elected representatives if this trend continues. Thats a good thing.

 

2. (Energy) I think the American public is finally waking up to the need for a more responsible long-term energy policy. We have been a bit slow on this one, but price fluctuations over the past few months have left Americans with a deep-seeded insecurity with respect to future energy prices. Nothing motivates as well as fear or greed. Now that a sustainable energy policy has fear as its engine, I think the ball will start to roll. Maybe we will finally become scared enough to do what we should have started 15 years ago.

 

3. (war) sorry but I don't know how to put a happy face on future trends regarding war. In general, I'm against war, but thats just me.

 

I don't really feel comfortable talking about my family with people I do not know on the internet. I'm sure you are cool, but there are too many freaks out there for that sort of thing. Sorry.

Edited November 29, 2005 by DanM

[Primus Pilus]

I don't really feel comfortable talking about my family with people I do not know on the internet. I'm sure you are cool, but there are too many freaks out there for that sort of thing. Sorry.

 

Indeed, but Moonlapse was suggesting as an optimist that we can even make the smallest of differences by instilling certain values or ideals in our children. No worries, I'm sure his intention was not for us to actually discuss our families.

[Favonius Cornelius]

In terms of energy fusion power, if it can be harnessed, and I believe it can, would lead to energy independence for the entire world without the fear of weaponry.

[Sextus Roscius]

In terms of energy fusion power, if it can be harnessed, and I believe it can, would lead to energy independence for the entire world without the fear of weaponry.

 

I must agree with Favonius, Energy fussion would be a great thing, it will take a lot of work though and I beleive most of the world will be distracted with what is to come.

[Zeke]

Dudes......do you know whats really stupid?

 

The fact that we have millions of acers of corn and 98% of it gets wasted each year because we already have enough food. But that 98% could be made into Ethol to be used in cars and run generators and factory machines....thus the stupidity of the Amercian Govemrnet, our unwilliningness to adapt and the oil corporations keeping the Ethol idea secret. Also we could run the whole Western half of our country on wind and solar farms...another thing that is being kept secret by the oil corporations. And finnally the paper issue.....I don't advocate drugs in anyway but do you know that 4 acers of trees is equivilant to 1 acer of hemp in temrs of 500 sheets of paper!!?!? Marjuana plants grow faster then regular trees as well. Thus is so stupid to keep cutting down whole forests and having to use more of them to make a matiral we cam make much more efficiantly with hemp or how about papyrus! The Egypitians used papyrus how come we can't??

sorry about spelling

Zeke