Prosperity=(geography*demography)/war in Rome and globalist times

[caesar novus]

I've been impressed by recent authors using geography and demography to explain past, present, and future events. Like the brief cogent videos in https://www.youtube.com/c/ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos . Supposedly the pax Americana allowed globalized trade and prosperity, but this altruistic policing of oceans to be pirate-free for instance may recede and leave deglobalized nations to face cruel realities of geography, demography, and war.

One of the more zany spokesmen for this (new world econ) extended it to relate to pax Romana, and I thought it could be an entertaining introduction for here. I guess he is the face of millennial scholardom: smart, wise, informed, but with a style that sounds like puffin da weed in his underwear: "Like, like, y'know, um, [explicative], like y'know". The Roman angle can be found if you drop in late here, bookended with a few scraps of Argentina and China that hopefully tempts you to restart full video https://youtu.be/5ZGnE4ZpUkM?t=1575 .

China is particularly considered fragile in geography and demographics, and has only held together due to recent trade-friendly bubble they say. Drop in here for how it can collapse in a matter of weeks if the US navy switches from protecting it's trade lifelines to sanctioning them https://youtu.be/KSa8096YBXw?t=1076 . For demographic trajectories threatening most developed countries soon, drop in https://youtu.be/jVYvx67lOJA?t=1861 (US) or https://youtu.be/KSa8096YBXw?t=354 (China). I have a little trouble with assumption that ocean/river/canal trade determines all. What about railroads, and so much is moving by air cargo now like even the 150 pound a/c I just replaced.

North America comes out charmed in both war-preventing geography and good demographics IF you consider Mexico part of same economy with youthful, inexpensive workers and consumers. Britain is charmed, at least if the Scots and their oil don't depart. France is a close-run case with it's Belgium border open for invasions, and Portugal being a fortress that can prevent the French Navy consolidating Med and Atlantic halves in a crises. Forgot to mention assumption that prosperity thrives in fertile lands with navigable waterways for internal trade, unchallenged by invaders due to formidable borders. Over time, wars still statistically arise where opportune.

Edited June 4, 2022 by caesar novus

[caesar novus]

I'm so fascinated by this geo-demo framework of history fairly independent of politics. I guess he sees the past and future as involving rats in a maze and it doesn't matter if some are biased to turn left or right, but all will be explored. The context will starkly choose winners, as is imminently happening now.

Oddly his just released book popped up in two parts on youtube. Is it an authorized freebie like the creator of Dilbert does?

The books fascinating graphics are here (click on first map then can rapidly arrow to one that grabs you) https://zeihan.com/end-of-the-world-maps/

Edited June 25, 2022 by caesar novus

[caldrail]

I lasted to the end of the introduction. Thank heaven I didn't pay money for his book. The problem is the author has a preconception and wrote a book to justify it. That ain't science.

[caesar novus]

On 6/3/2022 at 3:57 PM, caesar novus said:

to explain past, present, and future events. Like the brief cogent videos in https://www.youtube.com/c/ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos

His last short one has an "I told you so" moment since China just announced not 4 or 6 but 5 years of supply chain disruption. If not health issues for this predicted timeframe, they have other issues.

For me this has impact on a few boys toys I cherish that are only made in China. I just sold most that I could part with since buyers recognize their replacement value and scarcity is up. And soaring shipping prices for new stuff can be avoided. However my one must-have toy that wore out years ago is looking possibly not replaceable until I am too old to enjoy it.

I hate selling things to skeptical tire kickers, so advertised on Craigslist then kind of criticized my items to folks who showed interest. It worked in the sense of repelling time wasters, but some told me I would have found bigger spenders on facebook marketplace.

Edited June 29, 2022 by caesar novus

[caesar novus]

Whoops, that audiobook posting was unauthorized and got flushed, although the fascinating map/graphic link endures. The timing was unfortunate because the book starts out slow and digressive, then as it passes 2 hours it transcends into an engrossing explanatory system for our last 100 turbulent years and obvious future prospects. If instead the beginning had the sparkle, he would have hooked more folks like me to buy and finish it. Well I have it, but will refer to his more digestible video shorts for reflection.

I've been thinking how under his scheme the direction of progressive politics should change to reduce rather than worsen the dire consequences of de-globalization. Globalization emerged 50 years ago due to freak and temporary circumstances that led to massive betterment of world standards of living and a resulting crash in birth rates.  Only a handful of countries now have enough young to sustain population and economic growth, altho many are burdened supporting legacy of many old folks. So will progressives promote childbirth? It is almost too late unless done very aggressively.

Large areas of the earth have poor soils that only recently were made productive by petrochemical fertilizer and GMO breeding (sometimes disguised by being naturally bred copycats of GMO). With fertilizer trade and petro availability breaking down, will progressives decouple from this "buy local organic foods" mantra, maybe in the face of famine? The only way to sustain that seems to be reverting to using human waste for fertilizer. I visited China in 1980 when even in a city of multimillions, you would encounter women with 2 huge nightsoil pots at either end of a bamboo pole on her shoulders. It had a vile smell that you also encountered walking by a garden or field... OR IN YOUR BOWL OF VEGGIES at the dinnertable. Well, progressives could do it better now.

Related to this I love how these root causes explain a lot. For instance in our beginnings of food transport involved phasing out New England as the breadbasket for Boston, NYC, etc. It was a good thing because new england has mediocre soils compared to the emerging midwest. Vermont for instance was razed flat like a moonscape for resources - I've seen the pictures. Then more remote trade allowed it to reforest and take up more value add trades and mfg. BTW I hate the gushy admiration of NE forests where I grew up. It's mostly trashy stunted second growth not yet recovered from being razed for newspaper pulp, dairies, etc.

Another big reversal area for progressives is their religious zeal for unsustainable green energy. Like the below video describes, just the carbon footprint of building green generators is bigger than any possible savings in much of the cloudy non windy world. It also depends on exotic minerals that are becoming un sourceable. None of this means anything to a greenie, which is why it is a religion that needs to transform to rationality and maybe acceptance of modern safe forms of nuclear.

So those are some examples on how progressives can and maybe eventually will be more pragmatic if this plays out. Alternatively a conservative wait-and-see approach with flexible free market response will be workable. The worst approach is delusional gov't intervention like what turned Zimbabwe and Venezuela into catastrophes. From https://www.youtube.com/c/ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos :

 

 

 

[caesar novus]

On 7/6/2022 at 7:32 AM, caesar novus said:

With fertilizer trade and petro availability breaking down, will progressives decouple from this "buy local organic foods" mantra, maybe in the face of famine? The only way to sustain that seems to be reverting to using human waste for fertilizer.

I just heard spokesman from the Anuvia company speak about their new product turning manure etc including that from humans into fertilizer. Remember typically "Around the globe, natural gas is used as a raw material as well as fuel for nitrogen fertilizer production. In some countries such as China, coal is gasified into ammonia and used for manufacturing fertilizers."

Quote

The Anuvia Plant Nutrient release said SymTRX bio-based technology can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 32 percent compared to conventional fertilizer products.

Food waste and manure, by-products of the food and ag industry, are broken down to the amino acid level and then bound with organic-sourced nutrients and formed to create slow release products for crop production.

I mention human because there may be a lot less animal manure available. If food scarcity trends continue and given that meat production is 9 times less efficient to produce than vegetarian fare, then our poo might ameliorate dire situations in the warm colored countries seen below:

 

[caesar novus]

Case study of organic farming in Sri Lanka leading to starvation, from foreignpolicy.com:

Quote

Rajapaksa’s government made good on that promise, imposing a nationwide ban on the importation and use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and ordering the country’s 2 million farmers to go organic.

The result was brutal and swift. Against claims that organic methods can produce comparable yields to conventional farming, domestic rice production fell 20 percent in just the first six months. Sri Lanka, long self-sufficient in rice production, has been forced to import $450 million worth of rice even as domestic prices for this staple of the national diet surged by around 50 percent. The ban also devastated the nation’s tea crop, its primary export and source of foreign exchange.

...

The widespread application of synthetic fertilizers now allows global agriculture to feed nearly 8 billion people, of whom about 4 billion depend on the increased output that synthetic fertilizers allow for their sustenance.

Rajapaksa's palace has just been stormed and his resignation announced:

Edited July 10, 2022 by caesar novus

[caesar novus]

On 6/3/2022 at 3:57 PM, caesar novus said:

extended it to relate to pax Romana,

I only beat this topic to death due to the possibility of bringing it full circle back to Romans, and a possible revival of their imperial type of economy. This is my own extrapolation of the Zeihan explanatory framework, like my digression into progressive poo politics, so blame me rather than denigrate his framework. Caveat is I haven't viewed several videos by toldinstone about the Roman economy, so will have to defer to others for that knowledge.

So given how the world gained much wealth in the cold war period where trade flourished as if geography offered few limitations, this created 2 ticking time bomb effects. Firstly wealthier folks have few babies, and many economies are on the cliff of massive retirements and few taxpaying young worker/consumers. We indulge in denial now because current older workers are more skilled and productive than young until the switch is flipped and they become expensive drags in retirement.

Secondly, the expanding economy soothed the rough edges of capitalism, euro/canadian socialism, and even corporation fascism (= China now and even S. Korea in past). Now a shrinking pie will really stress out losers which will be most folks in these regimes. Internal conflict and external war may return as geography issues becomes more important. Zeihan sees old ideas revived to address this, like communism and especially imperialism. I've spared the "why" details but offer a new "what". Maybe the Roman Imperial type of economy will be a least-bad fit and be revived at least as an inspiration!

P.S. here is a substitute agricultural video for the one withdrawn above:

 

[caesar novus]

On 7/12/2022 at 8:52 AM, caesar novus said:

I only beat this topic to death due to the possibility of bringing it full circle back to Romans

I prolong a bit more because my casual research shows Italy having a historic opportunity to get western Europe out of projected energy/food deadlock from the coming winter onward. Italy seems to be the Saudi Arabia of easily tapped shale oil/gas reserves. In western Europe only Estonia has a fraction of what is primarily in economically depressed and outward migrating Sicily. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_reserves#Europe

I suppose this geographic feature may be an extension of Libyan fields, and some nearby Italian islands (Lampedusa etc) could be a base for horizontal drilling and fracking, if only for vital chemical and fertilizer production. I read this could be established in a couple months, but of course has little chance under eco-religious regimes for now. But in a coal burning and fertilizer-lacking near future, look for Sicily coming to the rescue for both humanitarian and eco benefits.