So when is this global warming supposed to kick in?

[Virgil61]

To anyone over the age of 35, the fact that global warming is occurring is blindingly obvious, and it  kicked in about a century ago, when coal burning in the industrial revolution began to make an impact.  A current local cold spell, or even a snowfall in Egypt, does not cancel out the upward trend in global temparatures over the past century which is a matter of record, and clearly visible to those who can be bothered to look at the meteorological records. Who can look at ice cap shrinkage and recession of glaciers all over the world, and still deny it is happening? News agencies may not have made much of a song and dance about it, but heatwaves in Europe in 2003, 2009 and 2013 each killed around 20'000 in Europe. The fact that each of these natural disasters affected mainly the old, and played out over  weeks rather than a single day, doesn't make them any less catastrophic than any Tsunami or hurricane. Just less sexy for news agencies - especially ones bankrolled by Exxon and Haliburton.

 

I'll go further in that I think climate change deniers are becoming akin to the those whose who deny evolution. Like evolution it's almost developing into a litmus test of whether a person is anti-intellectual & anti-science to be blunt about it.

 

To paraphrase JS Mill; 'I'd never say people who deny climate change are generally stupid, but almost every stupid person tends to deny climate change'.

 

I agree that mass media isn't where one should get one's science from--in the US we have media like FoxNews that loudly trumpets the other side of the issue--but I think any thoughtful person who digs into the issue can't help but come out understanding there is a big deal going on in terms of the Earth's climate & human beings play a part in it.

 

The scientific consensus on the subject is telling. A major paper by NOAA came out showing evidence of warming in the last 50 years - LINK.

 

The evidence goes on and on to the point where counter-arguments are pretty much swamped by the data and reality. Yet people still argue against it like they do evolution. At some point one realizes that it's just what people want to believe. I think it sucks, I'm more than happy to have a planet where we can use the hell out of oil and other natural resources w/no damage. Economies would grow faster, regulations would diminish etc., but as John Adams once said; 'Facts are stubborn things'.

Edited December 17, 2013 by Virgil61

[caldrail]

Of course there's climate change - it happens al the time - the Earth is a dynamic enviroment ifluenced by all sorts of things. To imagine we're the sole cause of it is actually illustrating how self important mankind can be. The problem is we're now more concious of these changes, because there are more of us to affect with more devices to record the changes. If you look back at older newspapers, say the between the wars, there are any number of reports of floods in America for instance, with great loss of life. Terrible weather is not unique to the modern day - it's just that unless we experience it, we tend not to consider it.

 

The debate here is to what extent humanity is responsible for the changes. I cannot agree it's solely our own work, but with such things as deforestation, there has to be some suspicion that we're changing the balance out of our favour. That won't destroy the world, just lots of lives eventually. After all, experts reckon that all signs of civilisation will be eroded away by nature in two hundred years should mankind cease to be. What's that on a geological scale? Blink and you'll miss it.

[Onasander]

There is about as much data out there that man caused the iceage to end as Krishna and Arjurna ended the Mahabhrata War.... quoting the numbers only expresses concensus, reality experienced from my senses says otherwise, as does common sense reason.

 

Its been getting colder. Snow falls sooner and sooner here, more blizzards, bigger floods.

 

Im not required to dance to a consensus that rides against the obvious. There is snow outside. WTF? Why has this last decade been so cold?

 

I recall here in 1862, during the summer month of august, many civilwar troops froze to death.

 

Am I to deny my own senses, and throw away reason, geology, and history to embrace a apocalyptic religion that coherses people into believing its own absurd ends, at the threat of being called stupid or an idiot?

 

Was is flint napping that drove the glaciers away? The bronze age black smithing? Low level athmospheric pollution from a few thousand factories in the 19th century? Do you honestly think their output came anywhere close to a volcano's output in a single eruption?

 

Screw Gaia, Screw Gore Messiah, and screw the culture of doctoring scientific evidence.

 

 

If someone has a solution to the snow problem, tell me now.... I will make it go away. Do I sprinkle transfats on it? Do I build a snowman, and dress like a cowboy, doing George Bush impressions infront of it, trying to demoralize and offend the sensibilities of the snow till it goes away?

 

If all these hoaxsters "scientists" guzzling grant money up left and right know how to get rid of the snow, if it really is so simple that every little thing we do, every fart we let off makes a mile of ice on greenland break away, then they need to cut the crap and tell us straight up how to do it right..... how to make the snow go away. Its gone away several times these last few hundred thousand years, if they know how to do it, they should lead us in this?

 

Should we fire bottle rockets at the snowclouds to intimidate them away?

 

Just what the hell can I, as a individual, do? How can I end the snow?

 

Truth is, short of lobbing nuke after nuke after nuke at the ice, there is jack diddly I can do to make even a dint into it. The stupid ice is growing way to fast now, I dont think we have much a chance against it.

 

Most of the planets landmass is in cold areas. Potential arable land. Lots of resources. Places where all the wars take place, usually hot and desert.

 

I say, screw the useless middle lands, we move everyone north. The idea of 60+ feet of water flooding the whinos and yuppies in the coastal cities is appealing as well. A world without snow, where peace and prosperity reigns.

 

But its all lies. All this crap does is scare people into religious archetypal patterns of apocalypse, to give lost people a sense of unity and purpose through hysteria and psuedo science, and this hysyeria about global warming merely causes businesses to shut down, so people can become homeless and sleep in the precious snow.

 

Screw the snows, screw the lies. Ill believe you, and will forgive you, once the evidence becomes self evidence. No more of this Schrodenger's Cat Global Warming. I got eyes, and I have memory, and common sense. Its freaken cold. How stupid do you think I am? Im not falling for this.

 

If its so easy to make global warming happen, then just do it allready. Quit toying with us. We can build a beanie baby factory on mars, or something retarded like that, and terraform it from thd industrial output. Melt the icecaps. Apparently its that simple

 

Which its not. Complete bull. Alchemy has a stronger foundation than these absurd, laughable beliefs.

 

Has anyone here flown over the oceans? Did you not see the infinity of those oceans rise to mist and clouds, scrubbing the skies? Have any of you actually gone north to check the ice? I have, despite reports, the permafrost us still there. Call any graveyard in Anchorage, Alaska.... ask for a winter plot to be dug, see what they say.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Onasander

[Onasander]

Im going to start punching and verbally abusing the snow.... right now, the weather has been getting colder the last eleven years here, and the ice has been returning in the arctic. If we measure a sudden increase in temperature, reversing climate trends, know it was me. I want to Nobel Prize for making the snow to go away by bullying it away. Its alot more rational than the current thinking regarding the Cryosphere. It can only cry if it melts, but wont cry unless you force it to. Thats the Cryosphere in a nutshell. Makes more sense than the rest of this global warming/Stoic Heat Death Apocalypse stuff.

[Virgil61]

Science is hard. Harder for some than others.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Virgil61

[Onasander]

Science is hard right now in London, suffering -20 C weather.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/dec/20/uk-snow-transport-chaos-heathrow

 

The global warming scientists are going to have to snowshoe to work.

 

I wish Heraclitus or Diogenes were still alive to hear the debate.

 

Science is observation based, first and foremost, and I cant see global warming due to snow blindness.

 

Two things.... England achieved the coldest month on record in a century, and I guarantee you, they will find a implausable way to blame it somehow on global warming, making this the warmest winter ever....

 

People, snap out of it. Your being played.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Onasander

[Onasander]

Another recent british site, the daily mail:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/And-global-COOLING-Return-Arctic-ice-cap-grows-29-year.html

 

Those are some pretty impressive pictures of the icecaps GROWING.

 

It also admits the global warming theory appears greatly flawed.

 

I still have my cold weather training manual Virgil, Ill send it to you, we can snowshoe off to a laboratory where you can teach me science.

[Virgil61]

Another recent british site, the daily mail:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/And-global-COOLING-Return-Arctic-ice-cap-grows-29-year.html

 

Those are some pretty impressive pictures of the icecaps GROWING.

 

It also admits the global warming theory appears greatly flawed.

 

I still have my cold weather training manual Virgil, Ill send it to you, we can snowshoe off to a laboratory where you can teach me science.

 

The Daily Mail anti-AGW? Shocking. Nice find Einstein. What's next physics using a FoxNews article? Evolutionary theory by USA Today?

 

It's not my job to pick up where your high school teachers failed. Being that you're almost pathologically threatened or made insecure by any sort of education I doubt you'd come along anyway. Let's meet at the reading room at Dumbarton Oaks, you know the one you were going to fly to in Washington state. Yeah, right.

 

Arctic Sea Ice expansion. Seasonal weather events aren't long-term trends.

There are different sorts of ice--thin, thick, seasonal, multi-year each having different causes:

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Has-Arctic-sea-ice-recovered.htm

 

Why are there cold spells? Let some more scientists explain it to you. Careful they have advanced degrees & you know, might actually know more than you.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/December-2009-record-cold-spells.htm

 

 

There is abundant evidence of climate change driven by

humanity;

About 40% of human CO2 emissions are being absorbed, mostly by

vegetation and the oceans. The rest remains in the atmosphere. As a

consequence, atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15

to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). A natural change of 100ppm normally

takes 5,000 to 20.000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has

taken just 120 years.

Additional confirmation that rising CO2 levels are due to human

activity comes from examining the ratio of carbon isotopes (eg ?

carbon atoms with differing numbers of neutrons) found in the

atmosphere. Carbon 12 has 6 neutrons, carbon 13 has 7 neutrons.

Plants have a lower C13/C12 ratio than in the atmosphere. If rising

atmospheric CO2 comes from fossil fuels, the C13/C12 should be

falling. Indeed this is what is occurring (Ghosh

2003). The C13/C12 ratio correlates with the trend in

global emissions.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Virgil61

[caldrail]

Unfortuinately statistics regarding climate change on the short scle are difficult to trust because those using them often have an agenda and get very choosy over which figures to use. Rapid warming isn't unusual - it happened at the end of the last glacial period and was way more dramatic than anything we're experiencing now. In any case, the correlation betwen industrial activity and CO2 levels is debatable - there is no direct link because the carbon cycle is not immediate, and in any case, we ought to be adding cosmological CO2 to the equation since we often come into the firing line of gas stripped from Venus by the Solar Wind. If anything, I might believe that deforestation has more to do with it than industry - and that's worrying, since in the story of Easter Island we have a model of a closed system that consumed it's resources and suffered the penalty for overpopulation. Earth as a whole is heading that way for no other reason than we're too succesful as a species. So in other words, we're reaching toward a curve in the "Rabbit & Foxes" diagram.

[guy]

I don't know. This global warming thing is working out for me. We are having beautiful weather here in Southern California this Christmas day. Happy Holidays for everyone:

 

 

 

 

guy also known as giaus

Edited December 25, 2013 by guy

[Onasander]

I like your novel thinking Caldrail..... in enlarging the parameters of a seemingly limited causality, and proposing new variables into the mix. You would make a good philosopher.....

 

Only issue is, though I can set parameters around this new idea of solar winds, the math itself is one of modern Fluid Dynamics mixed in with Boscovich...... no one reads Boscovich anymore, I can count myself in a very, very small population of people, likely less than 200 people currently alive who have even tried to read and understand his Natural Philosophy.....

 

He is indispensable for calculating any potential carbon interaction in the upper magnetosphere and our top most level of our athmosphere..... his math deals with non-relativistic statistical volumn of force under conditions of collision and inertia, and doesnt carry the problem in modern fluid dynamics of trying to intergrate two different forms of math that fall apart at different rates. Boschovitch also doesnt carry the Einstein curse of guessing wave or particle. He was the last physicists of the old school ..... his ideas are therefore the most advanced, best suited and most adaptable..... I laugh at the idea of our modern models of math calculating such a erratic exchange across the upper athmospher. With Boschovitch, adapting him is possible, but my teeth grind at the complications and hardships.

 

Secondly, tying climate change to this would involve figuring out earth's historic climate models, but also the suns, and synchronizing them. The sun is tricky...... the magnetosphere, IF (and it is indeed a if) it is strong enough to block most radiation, yet weak, or allowing, enough go deposit carbon in the uppermost atmosphere, we would need a way to measure this..... chemically and radioactively in soil/ rock strata, and in the absurd hope of ancient yet virgin, pristine samples in the upper atmosphere piled on one another stretching far back. Best of luck on the latter..... the balance of strong and weak nuclear forces 10,000 feet up differs from here on the surface...... airplane exhaust sits up there for years with little movement, but most pollution down here falls in minutes to five years. However, besides the logistics of getting it, the exchange rate of old and new must be high, stratification tricky and messy, and we contaminate that level of the athmosphere ourselves (space stations)

 

In order to synchronize earth climatic models to the suns is a big task. Lets figure out if light is a particle, wave, monad, corpiscle, or other first..... cause I think that is essential before nailing these other issues of Sun to Earth climate exchange models.

 

I dont see your idea being taken seriously any time soon, but it is less from stupidity on your end than the terrifying complexity, the pas snep, it involves.

[Onasander]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25572503

 

Ive kept quiet on this for the last week, but compulsion is driving me to break my silence....

 

A crew of global warming tourists and scientists, eager to see the southern ice sheets around antartica melting away, got frozen in place by a rapidly expanding SUMMER ice sheet forming around them.

 

Three ice breakers have tried and failed to reach them.

 

Yeah...... its pretty funny.

 

Goodnews is, there are scientists on scene who were in position to record every minute of this. Bad news, they are likely explaining to the tourists how global warming made the summer ocean freeze over!

[caldrail]

I dont see your idea being taken seriously any time soon, but it is less

from stupidity on your end than the terrifying complexity, the pas

snep, it involves.

There are plenty of climatologists who have similar views. Check out newspapers from the twenties. In the US, you will find stories about massive floods with hundreds of deaths that are now forgotten. Human beings have short memories and short lives. So we tend to see the world in a shorter time scale and ignore evidence that experts have been recording for a long time. Whilst average global temperatures have risen a small degree in the last century (I can't deny that), they rose much more more since the "Litlle Ice Age" of the 18th century, or haven't reached the peak of the "Medieval Warm Period". These things aren't just human intgervention - whilst we aren't helping things by our sheer impact duie to numbers - there are a great many people seeking to profit from fears concerning global warmiong. Anway, it doesn't matter. Humanity is foolish to believe they can control the Earth or that the Earth will remain exactly as it was forever. Climate changes all the time and we've been very lucky over the last ten thousand years. Sooner or later that luck will run out and we either cope or enter the fossil record. That's how it is. Bleating on about eco-this that or the other won't help one jot, nor the taxes we pay to fund it.

Edited January 3, 2014 by caldrail

[Onasander]

We didnt forget the early floods and storms of the last century, fast food joints like KFC and Pizza Hut, when they remodel, contact local historical societies for old pics of the town. We have the old blizzards, but not very many of the flood, it literally came down as a freak titlewave, killed most people up creek, a person had the soundness of mind to call warning us here. 104 years ago. No time to whip out the camera.

 

During the 1920s they were just starting to chart weather patterns modelled off of military patterning. I believe it was norway who started this approach. I dont think they were struggling to intergrate Pythagorean concepts of peras and apeiron into a odd/even complex, so they could figure out what the statistical geometry of collision and contact (via cellular autonamata) between the scalar field of the solar winds and the relatively static upper athmospher. You would have to do this it map the particle interaction.... particles that could be both wave or particle at any geometrical point of contact.

 

Add to this the difficulties in relativity of size paradox, I severly doubt they were thinking that. Their greatest math problem back then was proving one (the number one) existed..... which it doesnt.

 

Concept of a 'thing' provides the basis of a fact, but not its dialectic truth value. Empericism requires advance abstraction. I can guarantee you, despite having a more advanced form of mathematics in their era than ours better suited to this task, they understood it less than we know the crap we juggle now. Its precisely because we know of the absurd paradoxes in our current system we can do so much more with them. We force them to work in nuance ways.

 

Within a few short years of the 1920s, they chucked their system aside for Einstein. Its because they could only see the faults in the old system, dand the advantages in the new. Very few paused to examine the reverse.

 

We never do in modern scientific revolutions. Its not part of our epistemological theory. For this reason, I hold in severe suspect any fact or idea presented in ironclad proofs. Even suggestions to ideas tend to be quite shallow.... a little investigation can usually show they had no clue how to go about making the ideas work.

 

Im in the market for solutions. Not just ideas. The romans invented science fiction...... space travel and wars with alien races. They hadnt the slighest clue how to get up there though. Should I subscribe to them the idea of space travel, if they didnt even know what space was?

[Virgil61]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25572503

 

Ive kept quiet on this for the last week, but compulsion is driving me to break my silence....

 

A crew of global warming tourists and scientists, eager to see the southern ice sheets around antartica melting away, got frozen in place by a rapidly expanding SUMMER ice sheet forming around them.

 

Three ice breakers have tried and failed to reach them.

 

Yeah...... its pretty funny.

 

Goodnews is, there are scientists on scene who were in position to record every minute of this. Bad news, they are likely explaining to the tourists how global warming made the summer ocean freeze over!

 

Yeah the mouth-breathers on the FoxNews, Breitbart, Glenn Beck pander-to-idiots political circus pages are all over it. The Donald is on their side as well.

 

In another time articles would read "Astronomers Trying To Prove Earth Is Round Get Stuck Climbing Up Mountain!" and the peasants laughing about how it only takes common sense to know the Earth is flat. 

 

Meanwhile most scientists involved in the climatology field understand that local Antarctic weather on a 500 mile strip of coast wouldn't be a world-wide trend [long-term trends are quantifiable in showing different trends towards cooling]. Record heat waves in Argentina and Australia--thousands of square miles of territory more than the glacier area the ship is stuck in & two continents apart--are ignored.

 

Most important of all is that the ship got trapped between ice chunks that had been part of an extremely large glacier that broke off a couple of years ago [after thousands of years of being connected to it]. But again, no one's gotten poor by underestimating the ignorance of large parts of the population]. Yeah, kind of an important piece to be left out.

 

Big news, Antarctica has ice year round.