Crackpot predicted Rome earthquake

[Ursus]

In 1979 a seismologist predicted Rome would be hit by a "massive earthquake" on 5/11/11. (Or so rumor has it)

http://www.bbc.co.uk...europe-13354988

Edited May 10, 2011 by Ursus

[NoJobRob]

Well there was an earthquake in Spain. Kind of a creepy coincidence...

[Melvadius]

Given that on average there appears to have been around 1600 magnitude 5+ earthquakes each year since 1970 possibly not that much of a 'crackpot' prediction as to date - location however is an entirely different matter.

 

What I am certain of is that vulcanologist and geologists specialising in trying to predict the when and where of earthquakes or eruptions are probably not at all happy about the press interest in so specific a 'wrong' prediction. They have gotten it wrong all too often themselves by either being too cautious or too enthusiastic in the past so that in the few instances now where they can start to give predictions with a reasonable degree of certainty and advance notice too many people will ignore their warnings.

[caesar novus]

They have gotten it wrong all too often themselves by either being too cautious or too enthusiastic in the past so that in the few instances now where they can start to give predictions with a reasonable degree of certainty and advance notice too many people will ignore their warnings.

Italy seems to err way to much on the side of forecast believers: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=italian-seismologists-manslaughter-trial-bad-quake-prediction

 

Six Italian seismologists and one government official will be tried for the manslaughter of those who died in the earthquake that struck the city of L'Aquila on 6 April 2009,

 

The seven were on a committee that had been tasked with assessing the risk associated with recent increases in seismic activity in the area.