Something really bothers me about this kind of alarmism. Rhetorically speaking, you are implying that a 99% concensus of scientific studies indicating that human activity is not to blame would be insignificant compared to the 1% indicating the opposite, and that it would be ultimately negligent not to alter our lives even if the probability of success is 1%. Why? Help me understand this.
If you had a 1% chance of getting killed, right here and now, if you walked down a hypothetical street, but got $1million if you got to the end, would you take the chance? No? Why not? You would be disregarding a 99% concensus that you would survive, and be rich!
I don't see the correlation. This is how I correlate your original statement (keep in mind the rhetoric nature):
You're about to walk down the street and you ask 100 people what they think about you walking down the street. One person says its probable that you'll die. The ninety nine others say something else. The one person says that if you agree to cut your hand off there's a 1% chance that you won't get killed. Is it ultimately negligent to not cut off your hand? Let me explain...
The actual concensus is irrelevant to your own rhetorical scenario. I think you are including your already established belief in the opinion expressed in the original statement. What I'm saying is that if you didn't already have a 75% concensus, how can you say that we should act the same in a completely different situation? The urgency you attach is not grounded in your given scenario. I know it seems trivial, but it interests me that you say that even if there was only a very small amount of evidence it would be 'ultimately negligent' not to make huge sacrifices. I really believe its based in the fear that comes with the package. And really, the lifestyle changes are not slight. Slight changes will only produce slight results. There are no current alternatives that will support our industrialized world as it is right now. In order to curb and reverse our contribution of CO2 into the atmosphere, it will incur tremendous costs and sacrifices that you and I will pay for. This is why I used the analogy of cutting off one's hand.
I agree. I drive an old Civic that regularly gets about 40 mpg and efficiency is a top consideration when I buy anything. I'm actually in the process of rebuilding another car to get even better mileage. What struck me as alarmist was the original rhetorical statement and the implications of the required sacrifice. The frightening image of run-away global warming and its horrible catastrophes is anything but certain, despite what a huge political organization like the UN says. Climate change can't be tested scientifically. It's all based on limited theoretic simulations of a system that we don't know everything about. Being a programmer, this is the aspect I'm most interested in - the actual physics and the calculations used. I find it unconvincing, and I find the urgency to to impose regulation disturbing. There's nothing wrong with a more efficient lifestyle, but there are serious implications for the involvement of government. I wish we'd wait until we actually had some certainty instead of relying on a certainty manufactured with concensus and fear instead of empirical evidence.