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Showing content with the highest reputation on 06/08/2015 in all areas

  1. Mod is still going. We started from scratch and have produced a wonderful map (same dimensions). If anyone is interested let me know and I will continue to post updates here. Sorry for the absence by the way. I left after the forums went down.
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  2. If you choose to feel relieved, it up to you. This is about as close to supporting the arts as ISIS will get. Turkey is worth far more even as a dysfunctional ally than cutting ties with it. Reason why is many: 1) It gas territory in Europe as well as Asia Minor, and sits along the oath of NATO wide force projection avenues. 2) They have the second largest military in NATO, and its already compatible with other western militaries. If they got put out into the cold, any coalition or bloc they would join would have a massive technological gain, and would very quickly gain the ability to do competent ground maneuvers. 3) A hundred years ago, Turkey lead armor units deep into central Asia in a effort to forestall the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Their territory is a essential launching point for sustainable strikes deep into Russia's back yard. An example being, in the current Ukraine crisis, we would do a pincher movement from Turkey and Central Europe, not just Europe if we decided to take the Russians out. 4) They gave a lot of coalition muscle, being a Islamic majority country, and have ethnic ties with the Caucasus diaspora, as a lot of refugees flooded their territory last century. As of late, Turkey has been systematically exploiting the monetary and cultural influence of its new minorities on their home countries in the same way the US uses its multiculturalism and ethnic minorities to bond and influence our home countries. This us going to be essential later on in this century as Russia further collapses, there will be potential for expansion into former Russian Federation Territories as the Russian Birth Rate continues to plumet and they start to lose outlying territories more and more. Yes.... I'm looking that far ahead. 5) By losing Turkey, which intact DOES have the second largest military in NATO, and one well practised and to a degree battle hardened, we would be moving the EU defense parameter to Greece and Bulgaria/Romania. We lose control of the sealane between the Med and the Black Sea. We would have to substantially increase our Naval and military presence in Southern Europe, and many worthless (far more worthless than Turkey) worthless NATO countries would find themselves much closer to the frobtlines, at a time when Europe is intellectually and ethically disintegrating. There are natural ebbs and flows to every civilization, and European civilization is doing the kicking chicken dance right now every time it comes into contact with the needs for increased Federalism. Its been getting rather backwards and assinine there, so we can savely say its an ebb. They aren't exactly at their intellectual best, and thrusting new identity issues and external pressures on them is a bad idea. Furthermore, Turkey.... if it allies with Russia, has a lot of South-East European pull with discontent populations who notice they aren't benefiting nearly as much from the EU/Euro mess as much as Belgium or Germany, or likely will within the next few generations. I can point out many reasons more why we should keep Turkey around. Yes, they can be shitheads, bug they are our sgitheads, and they do a lot more than it appears at face value. They likely will have a coup here soon against Erdogan anyway eventually, he is by many behavioral measures a paranoid schitzophrenic a little too in love with power. He assumes Pennsylvania, but more than likely its going to be the guys just down the hall. This happens in Turkey. We really can't ally with Assad,as he is a war criminal. He has killed hundreds of thousands, used chlorine barrel bombs dropped from helicopters, etc. So his dynasty is more or less screwed. But, this doesn't mean another faction or splinter group holding a regional territory won't approach Erdogan and say it wants to open up talks for an alliance. If this happens, the rest of the Syrian government will chuck Assad very fast, once they see a light at the end of the tunnel. Turkey and Iran already are on talking terms, and Turkey doesn't feel as threatened by them, as Iran couldn't realistically do much to it, but Turkey could seriously fracture Iran (Persians as a ethnic group only stand at under a quarter of the Iranian population). Iran therefore has a limited projection of force, and always to the south of Turkey. In other words, Turkey can compromise, with Iran and even a new Syrian president replacing Assad, but not Assad itself. Too boot, neither can the US much live with Assad at this point. Were more or less stuck letting nature take its course.... Assad might survive with a rump kingdom around Damascus, but just as likely not. When setting up international alliances, you have to pay attention to the threat matrix each player in the theater is looking at the world in. I've made posts about the Rajamandala on this site, it is a tool to calculate generally in any given system which states will ally or war with. It was developed by the ancient Indian philosopher Chanakya, who lived during and fought against Alexander the Great. A very intelligent man. If we Ally with Assad, we would lose in the greater scope- most sunni nations would be infuriated. ISIS would rapidly expand to those states on propaganda grounds alone, even if we patch up Syria. The Shia power base we would ally with, as well as the Russian, would remain antagonistic, and would crumble via natural decline over the next three generatiins. Essentially, worthless allies. Its better to allign the current matrix of international players involved in this so we maximinize our long term strategic needs, in solidifying our current alliances, expanding to include key crucial States that will act as buffers to current allies, and demilitarizing and making more friendly neutral and hostile countries. When you do this, there is a much smaller chance of a world war breaking out. Look at Russia, its ability to project force into Hungary is gone.... It could pull that off easy two generations ago. I doubt it could hold up to a two front war today. Two generations from now, certainly not. I like old enemies going away. I like new allies. I'm a very simple person, such things make me happy. It makes a world war much less likely to happen, and if it somehow did none the less, we would unlikely be on the losing end. Were just dealing with some inherited, very old problems in the middle east. They had to be dealt with eventually. If we play it wrong here, we will have to watch hundreds, if not millions more surfer over the next few generations. So at the very least, we should look for forcing certain positive changes that improves the long term chances for success on all sides, over just impulsive short term reasoning and gains. This is a good time for problem solving. We can make more peaceful civilizations arise from this. Productive societies, who's kids are less oppressed and better educated and nourished. I like that idea.... a lot.
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